日本：一党独大的问题

Japan

The trouble with one-party rule

一党独大的问题

Sep 13th 2007
From The Economist print edition

After Shinzo Abe's resignation, Japan needs more than just a new prime minister
安培晋三辞职之后，日本需要的不止是一个新首相。

NOTHING in Shinzo Abe's occupation of the Japanese prime minister's office became him like the leaving of it: he made a mess of that too. But his departure on September 12th should be an occasion for more than lamenting his hapless year in office. The trouble is not one lousy prime minister but a political system that no longer works. The reign of Mr Abe's starry predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi, helped disguise this failure. But he, not Mr Abe, was the aberration.

日本首相府第中安培晋三的办公室里没有任何东西和他的离去相象，因为他 把那里搞得太糟糕了。不过，他于九月十二日的离任，应该给了他更多时机去做一些事，而非哀叹在办公室里度过的那倒霉的一整年。问题不在于稀松的首相，而在 于一个不再起作用的政治制度。安培的星光耀眼的前任，小泉纯一郎在任时协助掩饰了这个失败的政治制度。小泉才是出现那个差错的原因，而非安培。

Ill health may have precipitated the present crisis by forcing Mr Abe's final blunder: the poor timing of his resignation. But thanks to a sorry saga of his cabinet's incompetence, corruption and ill-fortune (see article) his poll ratings have been plumbing new depths for most of the year. At the end of July voters delivered the most damning of verdicts on his tenure, with a crushing defeat for his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the upper house of the Diet, or parliament, where, for the first time since 1955, it is no longer the biggest party. In the past Japanese prime ministers have fallen on their metaphorical swords for much less. Yet he refused to resign. He then bought himself a little time by shuffling his cabinet, bringing in some LDP heavy-hitters who recalled the party's history of corrupt faction-ridden politicking, but at least, in the public eye, went some way to filling the government's competence deficit. He opened parliament, attended a regional summit in Sydney and then made a big policy speech on September 10th.

健 康欠佳也许给了当前的危机以毁灭性一击，最终迫使安培窘迫犯错：不明智地选择了辞职时机。不过由于其内阁的可悲的无能传奇、腐败以及非正当收入等问题，他 的民意支持率在一年以来的大多数时间里已经垂落至新低。七月底，选民给了他一个任期内最无法逃避的裁决，他所领导的自由民主党在上议院议会和国会选举中一 败涂地。这是自从1955年以来，自民党首次在国会中不再是第一大党。以前的日本首相都栽在他们自己称做“鞭长莫及”的 比喻中。然而他仍然拒绝辞职。随后，他通过改组内阁给自己争取了一点时间，召回一些已退出政坛的大人物，让他们回顾自民党受腐败内讧折磨的竞选历史。但是 至少在公众眼中，某种程度上他在弥补政府的权力空白。他先召开了国会，然后参加了在悉尼举行的区域高峰会议，随后在九月十日发表了一个框架政策演讲。

Two days later he stood down on the flimsiest of excuses: that Ichiro Ozawa, leader of the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), had refused to meet him to discuss a compromise over extending important anti-terrorism legislation. If Mr Ozawa did indeed refuse a meeting, it should surely have been taken merely as one skirmish in a campaign—for extension of the law—that Mr Abe regards as vitally important for Japan, rather than as a pretext for surrender.

两天之后，他就利用那个最不足信的借口辞职了：主要反对党日本民主党的领袖 小泽 拒绝就延长重要的反恐怖主义立法案和他进行磋商。如果小泽先生确实拒绝了会谈，那应该肯定是仅采取它作手段，把它当作法案延长战役的前哨站。而此法案安培视之对日本极其重要，他不会以此为借口缴械投降。

Mr Abe is right that the lapsing of the law, which would entail Japan's calling off its operations refuelling ships in the Indian Ocean for the American-led campaign in Afghanistan, would damage Japan's international standing. But his staking his position on the issue highlights four big problems facing the Japanese electorate. The first is that too many LDP leaders, including Mr Abe and his most likely successor, Taro Aso, are obsessed with Japan's international stature and have lost touch with voters. They want to amend the pacifist constitution so that Japan can play a role in the world commensurate with its economic might. Voters are more interested in the economic might itself, and what it could do for them.

安培的所做是正确的，因为日本所陷入的法案要求其撤走在印度洋海域经营的加油船，转而为美国主导的阿富汗战役服务，而这将影响日本的国际地位。但是他以其首相职位在此议题上的冒险一搏，凸现出日本选民面临四大问题。首当其冲的是，太多的自民党领袖，包括安倍晋三和安培最有可能的继任者麻生太郎，都痴迷于日本的国际地位而失去了和选民的接触。他们都想要修改和平宪法，以便日本可以在世界上扮演同其经济实力相当的角色。然而选民更感兴趣的是经济实力本身，以及那对他们将意味着什么。

That is the second problem. Mr Koizumi's flair and common touch enabled him to sell voters a bill of goods which, on closer inspection, they do not like. His liberalising, market-friendly reforms will, if followed through, do much to sustain Japan's recent economic revival. But in the short term they are bringing pain to many areas. Unlike Mr Abe, Mr Koizumi timed his departure well.

接 着是第二个问题。小泉的敏锐的洞察力和广泛的接触使得他能够向选民出售一揽子法案，虽然选民在仔细审视时并不喜欢它。如果他的自由化政策、利于市场的改革 都被全盘继承下来的话，会在维持日本最近的经济复苏中起很大作用。但是在短期内，他们会给诸多领域带来疼痛。与安培不同的是，小泉的离任时机选择的恰到火 候。

Third, the DPJ's ability to stall and ultimately thwart the anti-terror legislation is not a temporary phenomenon. The next upper-house elections are six years away; it may be 12 before the LDP wins its majority back. After a Koizumi-inspired landslide in the 2005 lower-house elections, the LDP can carry on governing. But Mr Ozawa has a stranglehold. Enough shuffling: time for a new deck

第三，日本民主党阻挠和最终的反对反恐怖法案不是一个暂时现象。离下一次的上院选举还有六年时间。也许还要等12年自民党才能在议会中赢回多数。2005年在小泉的灵感失灵之后，自民党尚能继续掌控全局。但是小泽有个遏制手段。足够的推委：等待新的环境

That would not matter so much if he led a party that might form a credible government. He does not: indeed, he himself does not want to be prime minister and is in poor health. The fourth big problem is the lack of a serious opposition. The DPJ is less a coherent party than a job lot of competing factions: rather like the LDP, in fact, but without the experience of more than 50 years of nearly uninterrupted power.如 果小泽领导的是一个能塑造值得信赖的政府形象的政党，这点对他并非十分要紧。他并不在乎：实际上，他自己并不想成为首相，并且健康状况不佳。第四个大问题 是缺乏一个有分量的反对党。日本民主党不太象一个有内聚力的党派，倒更象是一份带有许多派系纷争的工作：实际上，感觉很象自民党，只是它没有超过50年控制几乎从不间断的权力的经验。

That one party has held sway for so long is of course itself a symptom of the sickness affecting Japanese politics. That is why many in Japan are hoping that the present mess does not, as usual, produce merely a factional compromise around an uninspiring new prime minister. Mr Koizumi is gone. But some of his followers are still around, frustrated by the return to the bad old days. They are mirrored by young Turks in the DPJ. For years idealists have dreamed of a realignment in Japanese politics, away from factional wheeler-dealing and towards true policy-based competition. In the present climate, hostile to Mr Koizumi's legacy if not the man himself, such a reformist grouping would have its work cut out. But the disarray of the big parties is such that it is surely worth a try.

一 个统治如此之久的政党，当然自身就是影响日本政治的疾病的缩影。这就是为什么在日本，许多人希望当前的乱麻不会象往常那样，只是围绕派系妥协而选出一个并 不鼓舞人心的新首相的原因。小泉走了。但是他的一些追随者仍然留在左右，对重返糟糕的老日子满怀沮丧。他们同日本民主党的年轻土耳其人形成鲜明的对照。多年以来，理想主义者梦想着日本政治体系的结盟重组，远离派系轮回交易，朝着真正基于政策的竞争迈进。在当前的氛围中，敌视小泉遗产的若不是小泉本人，那么这样一个改革组合会使其工作被取代掉。但是，涣散的大政党就是这样的，结盟重组确实值得一试。