印度：商业与种姓制度（下）

There by mistake关联错误

And despair he may. Practically no politician dares speak out against this caste-based racket for fear of being labelled an apologist for the caste system. Rather like guests at the Hotel California, those that join the list never leave—even one or two castes that were allegedly included by mistake. The surpassing example is Tamil Nadu, which reserves a total of 69% of government jobs: 1% for tribal people, 18% for dalits, 30% for the OBCs and 20% for a subset of them—members of castes once categorised by British colonisers as “criminal tribes” and now known more delicately as “de-notified communities”.

他确实失望。事实上因为害怕被帖上种姓制度卫道士的标签，没有任何政治家敢挺身而出反对这个基于种姓制度的骗局。和入住加州酒店的旅客不同，任何种姓一旦进入清单就不再删除——即使偶尔有一、两个种姓因为“失误”被选入。非常明显的例子是泰米尔纳德邦，其预留了全部政府岗位中的69%：1%预留给部族人口，18%给达利特人，30%给OBCS，其余20%给予那些“亚种姓”——这些种姓曾经被不列颠殖民者归类为“犯罪部族”，现在则微妙地被称为“未申报群体”。

There is little opposition to this policy in Tamil Nadu, for two reasons. It is one of India's more literate and prosperous states. And low-caste Hindus are unusually prominent in Tamil Nadu, which suggests to reservationists that the policy is working well. Textiles companies in Tirupur, a T-shirt hub, for example, are mostly owned by gounders, members of a peasant caste that is officially listed as an OBC.

泰米尔纳德邦不会有什么反对此政策的声音，原因有二。第一个原因是印度识字人口增多以及国家繁荣兴旺。低种姓印度教徒在泰米尔纳德邦占有不同寻常的优势地位，他们向预留主义者表示此项政策行之有效。例如，在T恤的生产基地Tirupur，大多数纺织品公司的拥有者都是gounders——被正式列入OBCS的农民种姓成员。

One defender of the policy is N. Vasudevan, chief official of the Kafkaesque vision of bureaucratic hell that is the Backward Classes, Most Backward Classes and Minorities Welfare Department in Chennai, where workers languish behind mountains of never-opened files. Asked when it might end he replies: “When everyone becomes equal.”

这项政策的另一个拥护者是有着卡夫卡式古怪幻想的政务长官N·万瓦苏德万，他把金奈地区的落后阶层、最落后阶层以及少数民族福利局看作是官僚主义所造成的地狱，工人们在小山一样永不开封的文件后苟延残喘。当被问到何时结束这项政策时，他回应说“直到人人都平等的时候。”

There is an alternative view: that Tamil Nadu is more equal than most states not because it has lots of reservations but because, overall, it has been run less badly. It has therefore delivered above-average economic growth, from which low-caste Tamils have benefited.

有一种值得商讨的看法认为：泰米尔纳德邦比大多数邦都平等不是因为其拥有大量的预留席位，而是因为预留制度总的来讲在这里运转得稍微好一点。因此其才有高于平均水平的经济增长率，从而使低种姓泰米尔人获益。

In addition, low-caste businessmen in Tamil Nadu have had opportunities that have nothing to do with government policy. In contrast to north India, where commerce is dominated by members of a few business castes, south India's business community has been more open to members of non-business castes. According to Raman Mahadevan, a business historian, this is partly because members of the south's main trading caste, the chettiars, chose to concentrate their investments outside India during the 19th century, in Malaya and Singapore.

除此之外，泰米尔纳德邦的低种姓商业人士所占有的商业机会同政府的政策并无关系。与北部印度相反(北部印度的商贸业受少数几个商业种姓所支配)，南部印度的商业社会对非商业种姓更为开放。根据商业史学家拉曼mahadevan的研究，造成这种情况的部分原因是，19世纪南部印度主要贸易种姓(the chettiars)成员愿意把资本投入到印度以外的马来西亚和新加坡。

Partly as a result, little large-scale industry emerged in southern India until the 1930s. Around the same time, a popular movement against brahmins—especially lordly in the south—emboldened members of the lower and middle castes, including gounders, who were quick to convert their new assertiveness into business.

结果是截止1930年代为止，少数的大型工业出现在印度南部。大约在同一时期，一股反对婆罗们的运动潮流——在南方尤其壮观——鼓舞了包括gounders在内的中低种姓成员，他们很快改变了固有观念进入商业领域。

The Hindu caste system has never been rigid. Low-caste Hindus do not accept their lumpen position in the hierarchy. Indeed, like middle-class English families, they tend to cherish a myth of their former greatness. By imitating the habits of a more prestigious neighbour, in dress or ritual, some low castes have sneaked a rung or two up the ladder. More recently, in an effort to be classified as an OBC or a dalit caste, some middle-ranking castes have tried to climb a rung or two down.

印度教种姓体系从来就不是刚性的。低种姓印度教徒并不接受他们在阶层体系中被奴役的地位。实际上，象英国的中产阶级家庭一样，他们往往对虚构的贵族祖先传说格外珍视。一些低种姓印度教徒在衣着上或者礼仪上模仿比较有身份的近邻，悄悄地在种姓阶梯上向上爬了一到两个台阶。最近，为了努力被列为为OBCS或者达利特种姓，一些中间种姓群体正尝试着要向下爬一两个台阶。

Meanwhile, on the lowest rung of the ladder, dalit businessmen can be found operating in the informal economy, perhaps as small traders. They must be especially reliant on caste as a business network. But that reliance will change if they can expand into the organised sector. Where businessmen can gain access to credit without having to claim kinship, caste affiliations wither. As Mr Damodaran writes: “A kamma sugar magnate ultimately identifies his interests with other mill-owners and not with fellow kamma cane growers or workers.” And his business may flourish, unfettered.

同时，在种姓阶梯最底端的是达利特商界人士，他们多半属于小商小贩，在非正规市场做着买卖。他们的商业网络关系肯定异乎寻常地需要依赖种姓关系。但是，如果他们进入到有组织的部门，这种依赖就会改变。在那里商家无需表明血缘就能获得信贷，种姓联系也因此而趋于凋零。恰如达莫达兰所写的一样：“一个kamma种姓的糖业大亨最终同别的工厂主拥有共同利益，而非那些kamma种姓的甘蔗栽培者或工人同胞。”只有这样他才能生意兴隆，随心所欲。

印度：商业与种姓制度（中）

Basic training基本训练

Infosys's training scheme, as described by S. Sadagopan, the IIIT'S director, is a Pygmalion undertaking. Meeting the parents of his dalit students, he saw “almost an anger in their eyes”. For the first month the students were unresponsive. Their English was dismal. Mr Sadagopan felt compelled to introduce lessons in self-presentation, including table manners.

IIIT公司董事S. Sadagopan把Infosys公司的培训计划形容为一个皮格梅隆式的任务(注：皮格梅隆,塞浦路斯国王，他雕刻了一个妇女的塑像然后陷入对她的爱恋中.)。在与那些达利特学生的父母会面时，他看到“几乎是愤怒的感情充满他们眼睛”。那些学生在第一个月的培训中显得懒懒散散。他们的英文水平让人沮丧。Sadagopan因此感到有必要强制引入包括餐桌礼仪在内的自我展示课程。

Matters improved. The course was based on Infosys's 16-week basic training, which 31,000 Indian graduates underwent last year. The low-caste lot scored similar marks and gained confidence. At a bonding session, filled with meditation and dancing, they wrote themselves a slogan: “As good as any, better than many”.

情况这才有所改善。这个课程建立在Infosys公司为期十六周的基本培训之上，去年有31000名印度毕业生学习过。多数低种姓学生得到的分数相似，并获得自信心。在载歌载舞的亲善大会会上，他们为自己制作了一条标语“象任何人一样好，比大多数人棒”。

It is a moving story. But Mr Sadagopan's students were not all that deprived. In the words of three, now working for Infosys, they were “normal middle-class Indians”. A third of them were the sons and daughters of professionals. The worst had grades only a little below what Infosys routinely demands of its recruits. Almost all were from urban areas, where caste discrimination is rare.

故事令人感动。但是Sadagopan的学生并非都是缺乏教育的学生。现在这些正在为Infosys公司工作的学生，可以用几个词来形容他们——“标准印度中产阶级”。他们之中有三分之一是从事专业技术的人员。他们中所受教育程度最差的人，也不过比Infosys公司招募新员工时的常规要求稍微低一点罢了。几乎所有人都来自于很少有种姓歧视的城市。

One of them, Manjunath, says the only time he was ever reminded of his low caste was when he applied for a place at university. Had it not been reserved for him, he says, he might have worked a bit harder—and so joined Infosys without any special help. As for his colleague from Bannahalli Hundi, coming from one of the richer families in the village, she is its first female university graduate—of any caste.

其中一个名叫Manjunath的学生说，唯一一次他对自己的低种姓印象是在申请大学里的某个职位的时候。他说，本来也许他加把劲就能够申请到那个职位，那并不是专为限制他的——然后未经任何特殊帮助他进入了Infosys公司。至于他来自于Bannahalli Hundi村庄里比较富有的家庭之一的同事，她是那里所有低种姓人里的首位女大学毕业生。

The most that can be said for Infosys's programme—without devaluing Mr Sadagopan's efforts—is that it is a great opportunity for a tiny number of middle-class Indians, who happen also to be low-caste. The same would be true of caste-based reservations. This is because the percentage of India's workforce employed in the “organised” private sector (made up of firms that declare they have ten or more employees), where reservations might be applied, is also tiny: around 2%. And as far as anyone can tell (companies do not ask the caste of their employees), members of low castes are already well represented in low-skilled jobs there. Much of India's heavy industry, such as steelmaking, is located where the low-caste population is high. Tata Steel, which employs around 40,000 people in India, has its main operations in Jamshedpur, in the eastern “tribal belt”.

最值得一提的可能是，Infosys公司的这一计划恰是印度数量微小的中产阶级的一个极好的机会，因为他们碰巧也属于低种姓的一员——这并非贬低Sadagopan的努力。这种机会也体现在种姓预留职位中。这是因为在印度的劳动力就业率里，“有组织的”私营部门(由最少雇佣了十名雇员的公司组成)可提供给预留职位的份额同样微小——大约2%。以至于任何人都能断定(因为企业并不在意雇员的种姓)，低种姓员工已经大量出现在了低技术需求的岗位上。印度的许多重工业，例如炼钢业，已经查明是低种姓人群最密集的地方。塔嗒钢铁公司在印度雇佣了大约40000名雇员，主要生产基地詹谢普尔市也位于东部的“部落地带”。

Membership of a caste, as of a guild or a church, provides businessmen with a useful network. In the informal economy, where banks fear to tread, caste bonds tend to be affirmed through business. The fact that most Indian companies are family-owned exaggerates this: to prevent wealth being diluted, it encourages marriages not only within the same caste, but also within the same family. A sugar baroness of south India's kamma caste, Rajshree Pathy, recently explained this practice to an Indian newspaper, the Business Standard: “The PSG family produces girls, the Lakshmi Mills family produces boys, they marry each other and live happily ever after.”

种姓资格类似于行业协会或者教派，为商业提供了有利的关系网络。在银行业不愿意踏足的非正规经济部门，赤裸裸的种姓联合往往是受到肯定的。印度的大多数公司归家族所有，这一特征使得这种情况更加明显：为防止财富被稀释，它鼓励不仅仅在同种种姓间通婚，而且提倡在同一家族之间通婚。南部印度kamma种姓的食用糖女爵Rajshree Pathy最近向印度《商业标准报》阐述了这种惯常的做法：“PSG家庭生育姑娘，Lakshmi Mills家庭生育男孩，然后他们结为夫妻，从此幸福地生活在一起。”

The modernisation of India's economy has brought more dynamic change. Among educated, urban Indians caste identity is fading. Inter-caste marriages are increasing. According to Jeevansathi.com, a matchmaking (or, as Indians say, “matrimonial”) website, 58% of its online matches involved inter-caste couples. Meanwhile, in rural India—where unions are not fixed online—intra-caste marriages remain the norm.

印度经济的现代化已经带来了更多动态的变化。在受过教育的人群中，城市印度人的种姓身份影响正在消退。跨种姓婚姻数量一直在增长。根据配媒(印度人称为“婚介”)网Jeevansathi.com的数据，网上结合的58%可划为跨种姓婚姻。与此同时，印度农村的跨种姓婚姻仍保持在正常水平——这些地方的婚姻数据并未在网上体现出来。

Business has to some degree been a laggard in this process. Caste bonds rooted in expediency, not tradition, allow businessmen to borrow and lend money with a degree of accountability, which helps to minimise risk. They are not an affirmation of a vocational hierarchy within the Hindu universe. Nonetheless, in north India, where business is to this day dominated by members of ancient trading castes, like marwaris (whose famous names include Birla, Bajaj and Mittal) and bania (Ambani), it can look pretty traditional.

商业在这个进程中已经慢了一拍。种姓联合的根源是一己私利，而非传统，它使得商业人士借贷现款时带有某种责任感，从而降低了风险。种姓联合不是印度教领域里的职业阶层定位。尽管如此，在北部印度，时至今日商业仍然被传统的贸易种姓成员控制着，例如marwaris（他们中显赫的家族包括Birla, Bajaj 和 Mittal）和bania（Ambani家族），这可以看做是纯粹的传统。

Rites of passage继承途径

Harish Damodaran investigated the caste origins of many of India's industrialists in a forthcoming book*. He identified three main trends. The first, which he calls a “bazaar to factory” route, is the passage of hereditary traders into industry. In northern India, some castes' monopolies have discouraged them from leaving their traditionally prescribed employment. So members of north India's farming castes—for example, jats and yadavs—rarely own a sugar or flour mill.

Harish Damodaran在即将出版的一本书中，研究了很多印度实业家的种姓起源。他确定了三种主要的趋势。第一种，他称之为“杂货店到工厂”路线，是世袭商人进入工业的途径。在北部印度，某些种姓的垄断已使他们不愿意离开传统的就业方式。因此，北部印度的农业种姓成员——例如贾特人和yadavs人——很少拥有糖厂或面粉厂。

The second trend, “office to factory”, describes a recent movement of well-educated high-caste Hindus, including brahmins, into business. Lacking capital, these sophisticates tended to enter the services sector, where start-up costs are relatively low. India's world-class computer-services industry, including companies like Infosys, is the result.

第二种趋势是“办公室到工厂”路线，它揭示了受过良好教育的高种姓阶层转向商业的最新动向，例如印度教徒和婆罗门。由于缺乏资金，这些精打细算的阶层倾向于进入启动资金相对较低的服务行业。印度世界级的计算机服务工业就是这一动向的结果，例如Infosys公司。

The third trajectory, “field to factory”, is the transition into the business world of members of India's middle and lower-peasant castes. This must be the path of India's dalits, too. But they have not trodden it yet: across India, Mr Damodaran could not find a significant dalit industrialist.

第三种方式称做“农场到工厂”，是印度中下层工农种姓向商业领域过渡的一个模式。这肯定也是印度贱民需要走的路线。但是他们仍然没有踏上这条通途：在全部印度，达莫达兰未能找到哪怕一个成功的达利特实业家。

There is no strong evidence that companies discriminate against low-caste job applicants. Upper-class Indians, who tend also to be high-caste Hindus, can be disparaging about their low-caste compatriots. “Once a thicky, always a thicky,” is how a rich businessman describes Ms Mayawati. Yet this at least partly reflects the fact that low-caste Hindus tend also to be low class; and in India, as in many countries, class prejudice is profound.

并没有明显的证据表明企业歧视低种姓的应征者。上流社会印度人——大多数也属于高种姓印度教徒——会对他们的低种姓同胞嗤之以鼻。“一日为贱，终生为贱” Ms Mayawati这么形容一位非常富有的商界人士。不过这至少也部分反映出来一个事实：低种姓的印度教徒往往也是低阶层；同许多其他国家一样，印度的阶级歧视很深。

There is, on the other hand, plenty of evidence that few able low-caste graduates are emerging from India's universities. Since it began registering the caste of its subscribers—almost by definition computer-literate and English-speaking—Naukri.com has added 38,000 young dalit and tribal job-seekers to its books. That represents 1% of the total who have registered in that time.

从另一方面看，有充分证据表明，印度的大学中几乎没有大量涌现有才干的低种姓毕业生。自从开始登记用户的种姓阶层以来，Naukri.com的求职名单上网增加了38000位达利特和部落求职者。这个数字只占同一时期注册的全部低种姓人数的1%。

For reservationists, this confirms the need for quotas. Others interpret the facts differently: reservations don't seem to work. And statistics support this view. Reservations notwithstanding, low-caste Indians are getting less poor at almost the same rate as the general population. Between 1983 and 2004, their spending power increased by 26.7%, compared with 27.7% for the average Indian, according to the National Sample Survey Organisation, a government body.

预留主义者认为这正好印证了配额的必要性。其他人对此的解读却有所不同：预留制度看起来似乎并不起作用。并且统计数据支持这个观点。尽管有预留职位，然而低种姓印度人脱贫的速率却和普通大众几乎不相上下。根据政府机构全国抽样调查组织(NSSO)的数据,从1983到2004年间，他们的购买力增加了26.7%，同期印度的平均购买力增长为27.7%。

Low-caste students struggle in schools without special help, which is rarely available. Their English—the language of India's middle class—tends to be poor. Many drop out. Up to half of university places reserved for low-caste students are left vacant. So, too, are many of the university posts reserved for low-caste teachers. Most Indians emerge from this system with an abysmal education. Low-caste Indians perhaps almost invariably do.

没有额外帮助的低种姓学生在学校里刻苦学习的情况十分少见。他们的英语（印度的中产阶级语言）水平往往较差。许多人干脆半途而废。多达一半的大学入学名额留给低种姓学生不过是空谈。因而，许多大学的职位也给低种姓的教师预留。大多数印度人都带着糟糕的教育离开了教育系统。或许低种姓印度人无一例外全部如此。

A measure of this fiasco can be found at the political-science department of one of India's prestigious post-graduate universities. Each year it chooses 50 students, from 1,500 applications, for its master's degree. Successful applicants will average no less than 55% in their undergraduate exams. Dalit applicants scrape in with as little as 30%. Nonetheless, practically every student will be awarded a first-class degree.

这种教育上的失败可以从印度一所颇负名望的研究生学院的政治系那里衡量出来。每年它从1500名申请者中挑选出50名授予硕士学位。成功申请者的本科毕业考试成绩平均合格率不低于55%。达利特申请者的合格率则只勉强够得上30%。然而，几乎每个学生都会被授予优等学位。

India is failing to equip its young, of whatever caste or religion, with the skills that its companies need. This is one of the biggest threats to sustaining high economic growth. India's outstanding computer-services companies—which will account for around a quarter of overall growth in the next few years—intend to hire over 1m engineering graduates in the next two years. It will be tough. To recruit 31,000 graduates last year, Infosys considered 1.3m applicants; only 65,000 passed a basic test. To address the skills shortage, the company is investing a whopping $450m in training. “We are building India's human resources,” says Mohandas Pai, Infosys's chief of human resources.

印度没有能力把企业所需要的技能教给年轻人——无论低种姓后裔还是宗教后裔。这是影响其经济增长持续性的最大威胁之一。印度杰出的计算机服务公司——它们将为接下来几年里的全部经济增长贡献大约四分之一力量——打算在随后的两年中雇用一百多万名工科毕业生。任务很艰巨。去年Infosys公司为招聘31000名毕业生测验了130万名申请人，通过基本测试的只有65000人。为提高专业技能，Infosys公司在培训上投入了高达4.5亿美元费用。Infosys公司的人力资源总监Mohandas Pai说：“我们建立的是全印度的人力资源库”。

Alas, reservationists have other concerns. Caste politics are pervasive. On August 28th the Supreme Court struck down an effort by Andhra Pradesh's government to reserve 4% of government jobs and education places for poor Muslims. The court is meanwhile weighing a more dramatic measure announced by the government last year: to reserve 27% of university places for the OBCs. To placate irate students, many of them high-caste, the government promises to increase the number of university places accordingly. Education standards would no doubt fall further.

然而，预留主义者还有别的问题需要关切。种姓政治真是无孔不入啊。8月28日最高法院推翻了安得拉邦政府向贫困的穆斯林预留4%的政府职位和教育席位的努力。同时法院正在斟酌考虑安得拉邦政府去年宣布的更为夸张的措施：为OBCs预留27%的大学席位。为安抚那些愤怒的学生——大多数属于高种姓阶层——政府承诺增加大学学生就读名额。毫无疑问，教育水准要进一步下滑。

Even so, the policy may be unstoppable. Since reservations for the OBCs were introduced in the early 1990s the rise of political parties dedicated to these groups has been inexorable. So has the proliferation of the OBCs, to around 3,000 castes. They include millions who are not poor at all.

即使如此，这项政策估计也无法被阻止。自从针对OBCS的预留制度1990年代实行以来，投身于这些群体的新兴党派可谓前赴后继。因此OBCS的数量激增到了大约3000个种姓。他们中有数百万人根本就不贫穷。

“A massive deliberate confusion” is how Surjit Bhalla, an economist at Oxus Investments, a hedge fund, characterises reservations for the OBCs. When they were awarded reservations, the OBCs were estimated to make up 53% of India's total population. More recent counting suggests they are only about one-third of the population, although their 27% reservation remains unchanged. Moreover, by most measures, the average OBC member is no poorer than the average Indian. “How can you discriminate against the average?” asks Mr Bhalla, despairingly.

一位供职于Oxus Investments对冲基金的经济学家把OBCS预留职位定性为：“大规模的故意混淆”。他们当时获得预留席位的前提是，估计他们的人数约占全印度人口的53%。更多的近期统计数据表明，他们只占全部人口数量的大约三分之一，但是27%的预留率却仍然没有变化。而且，从大多数标准上来衡量，OBCS成员的平均富裕程度并不低于印度整体平均数。“你们怎么能歧视平均水平阶层呢？” Mr Bhalla失望地发问。

印度：商业与种姓制度（上）

Business and caste in India

With reservations种姓专用

Oct 4th 2007 |BANGALORE, CHENNAI AND DELHI
From The Economist print edition

India's government is threatening to make companies hire more low-caste workers

印度政府正在强迫企业雇佣更多低种姓出生工人。

A 23-YEAR-OLD dressed in white pyjama trousers and a black over-shirt represents two worlds in India that know almost nothing of each other. One is fast growing, but tiny: the world of business. Strolling through the Californian-style campus in Bangalore that serves as the headquarters of Infosys, a computer-services company, she grins and declares herself glad. Her brother, she adds shyly, is so proud that she is an “Infoscion”.

一个身穿纯白睡衣裤和黑色罩衫的姑娘代表了印度的两个世界，他们相互之间了解甚少。其中之一是数量不多但成长迅速的商业。她轻启朱唇，笑容灿烂，漫步于班加罗尔带有加利福尼亚风情的校园——计算机服务公司Infosys的总部就坐落于其中——快乐之情溢于言表。她腼腆地补充说，她的兄弟为她的“Infosys血统”感到自豪。

He is in the rural world where 70% of Indians reside: cultivating the family plot in Bannahalli Hundi, a village near Mysore. Life is less delightful there. Half the 4,000 population are brahmins, of the Hindu priestly caste. The rest, including the software engineer and her family, are dalits, members of a “scheduled caste” that was once considered untouchable.

他则居住于70%的印度人生活的乡村，在距离迈索尔市不远的的Bannahalli Hundi村子里耕种着自家的小块农田。村子里4000人的总人口中有一半人属于印度教僧侣阶层——婆罗门。其余的人，包括软件工程师及其家人在内都是达利特人——这是过去被认为是贱民的“在册种姓”之一。

(注：scheduled caste是S-Caste的全称，在印度种姓制度中是“不可接触”的贱民阶层，可以翻译为“在册种姓”.)

Sixty years on this is still the case in Bannahalli Hundi, says the young woman, who does not want to be named. She has never entered the house of a brahmin neighbour. When a dalit was recently hired to cook at the village school, brahmins withdrew their children. Has there been no weakening of caste strictures in her lifetime? “I have not seen it,” she says.

这名不想透漏姓名的年轻姑娘说，虽然六十年过去了，但是Bannahalli Hundi村的情形仍然没有改变。她从来没有进入过婆罗门姓氏的邻居家中。不久前，本村中小学雇佣了一名达利特出生的厨师，随后婆罗门家庭就让他们的孩子退学了。种姓狭隘的现象在她的生活中有削弱的迹象么？“我没有看到，”她说。

The tale is in startling contrast to Infosys's modernity, and she is embarrassed by it. But it partly explains how she came to be hired by a company that is considered to be one of India's best. She is the beneficiary of a charitable training scheme for dalit university-leavers that Infosys launched last year.

这个故事和Infosys公司的现代性形成了令人吃惊的对比。她处境尴尬。但是这也是她为什么能得到全印度最好的公司之一雇佣的原因。Infosys公司去年针对即将离校的达利特出身的大学生发起了一项慈善培训计划，她是那项计划的受益人之一。

In collaboration with the elite Bangalore-based International Institute of Information Technology (IIIT), Infosys is providing special training to low-caste engineering graduates who have failed to get a job in its industry. The training, which lasts seven months, does not promise employment. But of the 89 who completed the first course in May, all but four have found jobs. Infosys hired 17.

Infosys公司和位于班加罗尔的精英学堂——信息科技研究院——进行合作，为那些无法在产业系统中找到工作的底种姓工科毕业生提供特殊培训。培训为期七个月，不担保能找到工作。但是在5月份结束的首期培训课程中， 89名学生只有4人没有找到工作，其中Infosys公司雇佣了17人。

The charity was born of a threat. India's Congress-led government has told companies to hire more dalits and members of tribal communities. Together these groups represent around a quarter of India's population and half of its poor. Manmohan Singh, the prime minister, has given warning that “strong measures” will be taken if companies do not comply. Many interpret that to mean the government will impose caste-based hiring quotas.

这个公益项目是因为一项威胁才产生的。国会领导的印度政府已经命令企业雇佣更多达利特人和部落成员。这两个群体的人数大约占印度全体人口数量的四分之一、全体人口的一半。总理Manmohan Singh已经警告企业，如果不遵守这项规定政府将采取“强硬措施”。许多人把它解读为政府将要实施种姓雇佣配额制度。

Quotas already apply in education and government, where since 1950 22.5% of university places and government jobs have been “reserved” for dalits and tribal people. In addition, since 1993, 27% of government jobs have been reserved for members of the Other Backward Classes (OBCs)—castes only slightly higher up the Hindu hierarchy.

从1950年开始，配额制度就已经适用于了教育和政府领域，在这些领域，大学的就读名额和政府工作岗位要为达利特人和部族人口“预留”22.5%的空位。另外，从1993年以来，27%的政府工作岗位要预留给那些其他落后阶层(OBCS)——这个阶层的地位仅仅略微高于印度教阶层。

Promoting the wretched改善悲惨境遇

This is not enough for supporters of reservations. Since the introduction of liberal reforms in the early 1990s, public-sector hiring has slowed and businesses have boomed. Extending reservations to companies, they argue, would therefore safeguard an existing policy of promoting the Hindu wretched. It would almost certainly require changes to the constitution. But low-caste politicians are delighted by the prospect, so it could happen.

预留职位的支持者对此仍然不满意。自从1990年代引入自由化改革以来，公共部门雇用人数已经慢了下来，商业部门蓬勃发展。他们主张把预留职位适用到企业界，因为这可能使提高印度教民阶层生活状况的现存政策得到维持。这几乎肯定需要修改宪法。但是低种姓的政客对此前景颇为欣喜，因此有可能发生。

The chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, a dalit leader called Mayawati, has said 30% of company jobs should be reserved for dalits, members of the OBCs and high-caste and Muslim poor. Chandra Bhan Prasad, a dalit journalist, applauds this and argues that it would be in the interest of companies. “It is in the culture of dalits that they are least likely to change their employment because they are so loyal to their masters,” he says. It would also help them become a “new caste [sic] of consumers”.

贱民出生的领导人，Uttar Pradesh的主席Mayawati已经表示，公司职位的30%应该为那些达利特、OBCs成员以及高等种姓和穆斯林中的穷人而预留。达利特出生的记者Chandra Bhan Prasad对此拍手称快，并表示这也有利于公司的利益。他说：“达利特出生的雇员改换工作的可能性最小，因为他们对雇主非常忠诚。”并且还会有助于使他们成为一个“新消费种姓(记者的原文如此，照原文引用)”。

Businessmen are unconvinced. Government, in both its intrusiveness and its incompetence, is a hindrance to them. Caste-based hiring quotas would be just another burden. People given a right to a job tend not to work very hard. So, in an effort to avert Mr Singh's threat, many companies and organisations that represent them are launching their own affirmative-action schemes.

商界人士对此并不认同。行政干预既是干扰又毫无根据，这对他们是个妨碍。基于种姓的雇佣配额只会是另一个负担。有权获得工作的人往往不会努力工作。因此，为了应对辛格的威胁，许多公司和组织发起了他们自己组织的积极行动计划。

The Confederation of Indian Industry has introduced a package of dalit-friendly measures, including scholarships for bright low-caste students. The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry plans to support entrepreneurs in India's poorest districts. Naukri.com, India's biggest online recruitment service, with over 10m subscribers, anticipates that companies will soon actively seek low-caste recruits. It has therefore started asking job-seekers to register their caste.

印度联邦工业部已经引入了一整套有利于dalit阶层的方案，其中包括向那些优秀的低种姓学生授予奖学金的制度。印度工商理事会联盟计划对印度最贫困地区的企业家提供支持。拥有一千万用户的印度最大的网上招募服务公司Naukri.com预计，企业不久就会积极地搜寻低种姓新人。所以他们已经开始要求职者注册自身种姓出生。

（未完待续）

逝者：马塞尔•马索，默剧大师和他的小丑毕普

Bip

毕普：是默剧大师马塞尔·马索所创造的最著名的小丑形象，“毕普”已经是马塞尔·马索的标志。本文全文都是以毕普这个舞台形象来诠释马塞尔·马索的一生。

Sep 27th 2007

From The Economist print edition

Bip, the world's quietest clown, died on September 22nd, older than he seemed

世界上最安静的小丑毕普，于九月二十二日辞世，远比人们印象中的他要长寿。(Bip或译“毕毕”)

WHEN the spotlight faded on Bip last week, leaving not even a hand or a flower illuminated, it caused only a sigh of surprise. Bip had tried many times to put an end to himself. He would cut his wrists with a blade, nicking and wincing away from it, in case his copious blood gushed over his pure white sailor's trousers. He would shake out into his palm a handful of pills from a bottle, open his wide red mouth, and fail to swallow them. Stepping on a chair that wobbled under him, he would knot a noose round his scrawny neck, test it, yank it, gyrate his neck like a pigeon and step out into the void. Nothing worked. He went on living.

上周，毕普身上的聚光灯褪去了五彩，甚至哪怕是一只手或者一朵装饰的花儿都没能留下来，这只能让人们发出一声惊讶的叹息。 毕普曾尝试过好多次了断自己。他常用刀片割破手腕，边割边把身体向另一旁抽缩，以防汹涌而出的鲜血溅在纯白色的水兵裤子上。他会从瓶子中抖出一把药丸，然后张开血红的大嘴巴准备吃掉它们，但是却未能吞咽下去。他会跳上一把摇摇晃晃的椅子，在瘦骨嶙峋的脖子上打上一个绳套，先试一下，然后猛地一拉，把脖子扭得象一只鸽子，接着跳下椅子悬在半空中。所有这些都不奏效，他仍然活得好好的。

That he should wish to die was also not surprising. Often he was kept, crouching or standing, in a small cage on the stage. One by one he ran his hands along the bars until, with all his strength, he pushed two apart and jumped nimbly out; but then, right ahead of him, behind him, all round him, he found his palms flattening against a wall of glass. Each cage was contained in another. His hands often became birds, flickering and fluttering out of his sleeves, and he made them fly swiftly from their prisons, laughing as they flew. But the bars soon closed again round him.

他想死并不奇怪。他总是或蹲或站地被关在舞台上的一个小笼子里。他竭尽全力地用双手逐一推栅栏，一直到把两根栅栏间推开一条缝然后敏捷地从笼子中跳出来；但是紧接着，他发现前面、后面，四面八方到处都是挤压他手掌的玻璃墙。每个笼子之外都套有笼子。他的双手常常好象变成了飞鸟，扑动着翅膀在衣袖中振翅欲飞，接着他让它们迅速地飞离束缚，伴随着的是一声大笑。但是不久，栅栏就又把他困住了。

Like all human beings, he dreamed; but his dreams were rarely successful. He hunted butterflies with a darting net, only to break their wings. He plucked flowers, then picked their petals out, and was surprised they died. When he tried to tame lions, they ate him, scorning the thin hoop he flourished in their direction. He walked against wind and made no progress. His black-ringed eyes and black-lined eyebrows registered sadness, wonder, perplexity and terror. But he did not know what malevolence was. He was, said the man who knew him best, a romantic, a Don Quixote tilting at windmills, and “alone in a fragile world filled with injustice and beauty”.

他同其他人一样有梦想；但是却罕有实现。他用投射网捕抓蝴蝶，却撕破了它们的翅膀。他把鲜花拔下来，摘掉花瓣，却惊奇地发现它们枯萎了。他尝试驯狮，狮子却反过来要吃他，轻蔑地瞧着他朝它们挥舞薄铁环。他迎风而行却寸步难行。他黑眼圈内的眼睛和一字型的黑色眉毛流露着忧伤、惊讶、迷惘和恐怖。但是他却不知道什么是恶毒。最了解他的人说他是个浪漫的、刺向风车的当代唐·吉诃德，“孤独地行进在一个充满着不公正和美丽的脆弱世界里”。

To the naked eye Bip had only the clothes he stood up in: trousers, jacket, soft ballet shoes, striped jersey, and a crumpled opera-hat topped with a red flower. His lean limbs and white face were his only language. The spotlight played on him, and nothing else. Yet the silence around him was filled with chairs, tables, animals, trunks and escalators. It swarmed with lounging waiters, officious policemen, dog-walkers pulled to right and left of the path, old ladies knitting. Railway trains roared through, and Bip, bouncing and swaying in his seat, struggled to keep his suitcase from falling out of the rack. The sea flooded in, bringing a ship that could take Bip on his constant travels to America, to Japan and to Australia, and he staggered manfully up and down the pitching deck.

就外表看，毕普仅仅穿着他的丑角行头：一条长裤，一个外套，一双柔软的芭蕾舞鞋，一件条纹运动衫以及一顶顶上缀着朵红花的皱巴巴的男式礼帽。削瘦的四肢和白色的脸孔是他仅有的语言。聚光灯照在他的身上，除此之外再没别的东西了。然而围绕着他的寂静却充满了椅子、桌子、动物、旅行箱和电梯。懒散的侍者、无事生非的警察、横冲直撞的溜狗人、织毛衣的老太太等等，熙熙攘攘地拥挤在一起。火车呼啸而过，毕普坐在上下颠簸的座位上，勉强保护着手提箱没有从车架上掉下来。海水涨潮，漂来一条海船，它可以带着毕普不断地旅行，先到美国再到日本然后到澳大利亚，他顽强地在颠簸的甲板上蹒跚而行。

He was born, some said, in the Paris acting school in 1947, bred by Jean-Louis Barrault in “Les Enfants du Paradis” and raised at the tiny Théatre de Poche in Montparnasse. Others made him far older, dating from the Athenian drama and the Japanese noh plays, via the commedia dell'arte and Charlie Chaplin. Parts of all this went into the making of him, as well as the imaginings of the young Marcel Marceau, in Strasbourg in the 1930s, trying on his father's long trousers and contorting his body to make his friends laugh. His name, Bip, came loosely from Dickens's “Great Expectations”. His hat, flower and sailor-costume solidified over time.

有人说毕普1947年诞生于巴黎署理学校，让-路易斯·巴伦特在电影《天堂的孩子》中塑造了他的形象，并把他搬上了蒙帕那斯的tiny Théatre de Poche 。还有人认为毕普来源于更早的雅典戏剧和日本奥马尔戏，并借鉴了即兴喜剧和查理·卓别林的。所有这些零散的内容，连同1930年代斯特拉斯堡的年轻人马塞尔·马索的想象力，被一起融入进了对毕普的创造之中。那时侯，马塞尔·马索常穿上他父亲的长裤子并扭曲身体，试着给朋友们逗乐。他的名字“毕普”是从狄更斯的《远大前程》中随意挑出来的。他的帽子、花儿以及水手装束随时间的推移已经变得不可分割。

Becoming the tempest骤成风暴

He never spoke. Mr Marceau's father died in 1944 in Auschwitz, and Bip's silence was a tribute to all those who had been silenced in the camps. It was a recollection, too, of the necessary muteness of resistance fighters caught by the Nazis, or quietly leading children across the Swiss border to safety, as Mr Marceau had done. In one of his acts, “Bip Remembers”, the sad-faced clown relived in mime the horrors of the war and stressed the necessity of love. In another, his hands became good and evil: evil clenched and jerky, good flowing and emollient, with good just winning.

他从不说话。马索的父亲1944年死于奥斯威辛集中营，因而毕普的沉默是向那些在集中营中被压制的人们致敬。它是对那些被纳粹捕抓的抵抗斗士们宁死不屈精神的追忆，还是对那些象马索一样悄悄地带领儿童穿越瑞士边界的人们的回忆。他有一场叫做《毕普的回忆》的表演，剧中这个忧伤的小丑再次体验了模拟的战争恐怖，并强调了爱的需要。在另一场表演中，他的双手是善良与邪恶的代表：邪恶的手紧握拳头，干瘪而丑陋，善良的手舒畅地伸展着，柔软而美丽，最终善良战胜了邪恶。

His alter ego, who promoted him as Everyman all over the world, sometimes spoke for him. “Bip”, said Mr Marceau, “is a hero of our time. His gaze is turned not only towards heaven, but into the hearts of men.” Mr Marceau compiled his biography and painted his portrait, colouring him blue, rose and mauve as he walked through the city streets and sailed among the stars. He wrote a poem for him:

A silent, fragile hand has drawn in space a white flower emptied of its blood.

Soon it will open, blossom out.

Soon, though faded, bloom again.

毕普有个时常代他说话的知己，这个知己把毕普提升到了具有普世意义的高度。马索说：“毕普是我们时代的英雄。他的目光不仅转视天堂，还深入人们的内心。”马索编撰毕普的传记，为毕普画肖像，当毕普徒步穿越城市的街道时，当毕普航行于无边星际时，马索给他的肖像着上不同的颜色：忧郁的蓝色、奔放的玫瑰红以及淡紫色。他为他写过一首诗：

一只静默脆弱的手从流尽鲜血的苍白的花朵间抽出，

不久它就会舒展开，然后开花。

不久，它再次开花，虽然五彩褪尽。

Mr Marceau was garrulous and gregarious where Bip was not. He ran his own mime company for almost 60 years, staging mimodrames when they were completely out of fashion, and started an international school in Paris to teach his skills to others. No mime artist could touch him. Hollywood loved him. Mr Marceau gave interviews frequently, sometimes in Bip's clothes, explaining him to the crowd: “If I do this, I feel that I am a bird. If I do this, I am a fish. And I feel that, if I do this, it's like a song...To mime the wind, one becomes a tempest. Mime expresses...the soul's most secret aspiration.”

马索不扮演毕普的时候活泼健谈。他经营自己的默剧公司将近60年，在默剧彻底过时的时候却登台表演默剧，并在巴黎开办了国际性的学校向他人传授自己的技艺。没有默剧演员可以望其项背。好莱坞喜欢他。马索频繁地接受采访，有时候穿着毕普的装束，向人群解释说：“当我表演的时候，我感觉我是只鸟儿。当我表演的时候，我是条鱼儿。我感受到，表演就象是一首歌….模仿风时，人就成了风暴。默剧表达….灵魂中最秘密的渴望。”

Bip simply moved on the stage, bird, fish, song, wind, tempestuously without a word, until he too became invisible.

毕普洒脱地走上舞台，先是(模仿)鸟儿，接着是鱼，然后是歌，再后来是风，如同暴风骤雨却不说一个字，一直到他自己也消失于无形。

缅甸：番红花革命

Revolution in Myanmar

The saffron revolution

番红花革命

Sep 27th 2007

From The Economist print edition

If the world acts in concert, the violence should be the last spasm of a vicious regime in its death throes

如果全世界统一行动，此次暴行应该会是一个邪恶体制垂死挣扎的最后一记抽搐。

“FEAR”, the lady used to say, “is a habit.” This week, inspired in part by the lady herself, Aung San Suu Kyi, partly by the heroic example set by Buddhist monks, Myanmar's people kicked the addiction.

昂山素姬女士以前常常说：“恐惧是一种习惯。”然而本周，缅甸人民打破了这个习惯。原因之一是昂山素姬女士本人的激励，另一个原因是佛教僧侣树立的崇高榜样。

Defying the corrupt, inept, brutal generals who rule them, they took to the streets in their hundreds of thousands to demand democracy. They knew they were risking a bloody crackdown, like the one that put down a huge popular revolt in 1988, killing 3,000 people or more. In 1988 Burma's people were betrayed not just by the ruthlessness of their rulers, but also by the squabbling and opportunism of the outside world, which failed to produce a co-ordinated response and let the murderous regime get away with it. This time, soldiers are once again shooting and killing unarmed protesters (see article). Can the world avoid making the same mistake twice?

成千上万的缅甸人民走上街头，抗议腐败、无能和残忍的军权统治者。他们明白他们的行为很有可能遭到血腥镇压，就象镇压1988年的大规模反叛一样，3000人在那次事件中死亡，也许还不止这个数字。1988年的缅甸人民不仅仅是被他们冷酷的统治者出卖的，他们也是被争吵不休的、机会主义的外界世界各国所出卖，那些国家未能作出同步反应，致使杀人的政权得以侥幸逃脱惩罚。这一回，士兵们又一次朝手无寸铁的示威群众开枪了。世界能否避免两次犯同一个错误？

In New York for the United Nations General Assembly, Western leaders, led by George Bush, harangued the junta, and threatened yet more sanctions. They have probably already shot their bolt. Western sanctions have been tried and have failed, in part because Myanmar's neighbours have for years followed a different approach. Its fellow members of the Association of South-East Asian Nations waffled about “constructive engagement” while making economic hay in Myanmar from the West's withdrawal. India, too, anxious about China's growing influence, and hungry for oil and gas, has swallowed its democratic traditions and courted the generals.

布什所领导的西方国家领导人在联合国大会上针对军人集团发表了谴责性的长篇演说，并威胁说要给予更多的制裁。他们已经已尽了最大努力。但是部分地由于缅甸的邻国多年以来采取了不同的做法，所以西方的制裁经过检验证明是失败的。当东南亚国家联盟的伙伴成员国从西方国家的退却中谋取经济上的好处时，总是用动听的调子说成是“建设性接触”。由于对中国持续增长的影响力感到焦虑，并急于得到石油和天然气，印度已压制了其民主的传统同时向军政政府示好。

Comrades-in-arms 战友

China itself has built an ever-closer relationship. The two countries, after all, have a lot in common beyond a shared border. Since the 1980s a wave of “people-power” revolutions has swept aside tyrannies around the world. Mercifully few regimes, and few armies, are willing to kill large numbers of their own people to stay in power. Two big exceptions have been Myanmar and China, whose government in 1989 likewise stayed in power through a massacre.

中国自己倒是和缅甸建立了日益密切的关系。毕竟，这两个共享部分边界的国家有许多共同点。1980年代以来，一股“人民动力”的革命席卷了世界上的暴政统治。幸运的是，很少有政权或者军队愿意用杀死大量自己人民的方式去巩固政权。Two big exceptions have been Myanmar and China, whose government in 1989 likewise stayed in power through a massacre.

Yet it is China that now offers the best hope the outside world has of changing Myanmar for the better. Admittedly, it is a thin hope. There are plenty of reasons to doubt China's willingness to upset Myanmar's generals. China's traditional posture, heard again this week, is to oppose any “interference in the internal affairs of another country”. It trots out this formula so often when foreigners criticise its own behaviour that, even if it supports change, it is hard for it to utter more than platitudes, as it has this month, about the desirability of a “democracy process that is appropriate for the country”.

然而现在恰是中国给外界提供了一个使缅甸向好的方向发展的希望。诚然，这个希望渺茫。有许多理由可以质疑中国向缅甸军政施压的意愿。本周再次听到了中国的一贯态度，那就是反对任何“对其他国家内政的干涉”。当外界批评中国的行为时，它总是频繁地适用这个公式，即使它支持改变，也很难期望它改变那一套的陈词滥调，就像本月谈到到愿望时所说的那样“民主进程对这个国家来讲是适宜的”。

China has also been the chief beneficiary of the partial Western boycott. Myanmar offers two of the prizes China values most in its foreign friends: hydrocarbon resources and a friendly army, willing to give it access to facilities on its coast on the Bay of Bengal. China has become the junta's biggest commercial partner and diplomatic supporter.

中国是西方的局部制裁行动的最大受益人。缅甸提供了两项中国在其邻国中最重视的价值：油气能源以及友好的军队，它愿意向中国提供使用其孟加拉湾海岸线上的设施的权利。中国已经成为了这个军人集团的最大的贸易伙伴和政治支持者。

Nevertheless there are two reasons why China might now see its own interests as best served by assisting a peaceful transition in Myanmar. The first is that China wants stability on its borders, and it is becoming obvious that the junta cannot provide it. The generals' economic mismanagement has helped reduce a country blessed with rich resources to crippling poverty. Fleeing economic misery as much as political oppression, up to 2m migrants from Myanmar are in Thailand. And it was an economic grievance—a big, abrupt rise in fuel prices—that sparked the present unrest.

尽管如此，仍然有两个理由可以说明为什么中国现在可能会把协助缅甸向和平过渡 视为自己的利益。首先，中国希望其边界的稳定，显然军人集团不能提供这一点。军政政府经济上的管理不善给这个国家减少贫困的努力帮了倒忙，虽然它有得天独厚的资源优势。为逃离经济上的惨痛和政治上的镇压，多达2百万缅甸人移民到了泰国。这引发了经济上的抱怨——燃油价格的大幅度快速上升——也是激发当前动荡局势的原因。

The junta has at least succeeded in cobbling together ceasefire agreements with most of the two dozen armed insurgencies lining its borders. But the price has been lawless zones where banditry and illegal-drug production are rife. Myanmar's slice of the “Golden Triangle” on its Thai and Lao borders was for a while in the 1990s the world's dominant heroin producer. It has been largely priced out of that market by Afghan competition. But it has successfully diversified into methamphetamines. The business relies on precursor chemicals coming from China, but, just as heroin from Myanmar brought China addiction and, through shared needles, HIV and AIDS, so “ice” can wreak havoc. Nobody expects any transition to democracy to be trouble-free. But, Chinese leaders must be asking themselves, can it be any worse?

军人集团至少成功地同沿边界线分布的二十多个武装反叛军恢复了停战协议。但是代价是那些无法无天的地带：在那里抢劫和非法的毒品生产司空见惯。缅甸和泰国、老挝交界的“金三角”地带1990年代有一个时期是世界上主要的海洛因生产基地。虽然很大程度上它已在价格竞争上被对手阿富汗所击败。但是它已经成功地利用脱氧麻黄碱(俗名冰毒)实现了多元化经营。这个行当所依赖的原始化学药品来源于中国，但是，正象从缅甸来的海洛因使中国人上瘾，并且通过共用针头注射产生爱滋病感染者和爱滋病一样，“冰毒”也能带来严重破坏。没人指望向民主过渡能一帆风顺。但是，中国的领导人肯定要问自己，事情会不会变的更糟？

Appealing to the Olympic spirit呼吁奥林匹克精神

China must also be wondering nervously how all this will affect next year's Olympic games in Beijing. Already, protests about China's support for the government of Sudan, larded with comparisons to the 1936 Berlin Olympics, have shown that its foreign policy as well as its human-rights record at home is under scrutiny. Myanmar is justifiably a popular cause in the West. If China proves actively obstructive to international efforts to bring the junta to book, it may provoke calls for a boycott of the games.

中国肯定也会紧张地担心所有的这些情况会在多大程度上影响明年在北京举行的奥林匹克运动会。抗议中国支持苏丹政府的活动中充斥着把北京奥运会和1936年的柏林奥运会相提并论的比较，这已经表明中国的外交政策以及其在国内的人权记录都受到了审慎的关注。西方完全有正当的理由关心缅甸局势。如果中国在把军人集团拉回谈判桌前的国际努力上被证实提供了实际上的阻碍，这将会激起一场抵制奥运会的呼声。

It is of course wrong to assume that China can dictate to Myanmar. In the generals' deluded world-view, only they can preserve Myanmar's independence. They will take orders from no other country. China's role is crucial, nonetheless. It must not blunt the impact of measures taken by other countries and provide the junta with a shield to fend off demands to do what it should.

然而，设想中国能支配缅甸也当然是错误的。在军政将军们幻想的世界观里，只有他们能保持缅甸的独立。他们不会接受其他任何国家的命令。尽管如此，中国的作用还是至关重要的。绝对不要削弱其他国家采取的措施的影响力，并且不要向军人集团提供庇护以及避开自己被要求做的应该做的事。

That, at least, is easy to prescribe. It should stop shooting protesters; free all political prisoners, including Miss Suu Kyi; scrap the constitutional guidelines drawn up by its farcical “national convention”; and start serious talks with all groups, including Miss Suu Kyi and her party. The aim of those talks should also be clear: to arrange a transition to civilian, democratic rule. For their part, provided free and fair new elections are held, Miss Suu Kyi and her party should not insist on the results of the election they won in a landslide in 1990 being honoured. And, unpalatable as it is, they should offer the generals whatever incentive they need to go quietly. This all sounds a pipedream. It will certainly remain so if the outside world does not unite around a set of demands, and agree on the sticks and carrots that might make deaf old soldiers listen.

至少，那样就很容易开处方了。军政政府应该停止枪杀抗议者；释放包括昂山素姬女士在内的所有政治犯；废弃滑稽的“国民大会”草拟的宪法纲领；并且认真地和包括昂山素姬女士以及其政党在内的所有党派展开对话。这些对话的目的也应该很明确：协商向平民化的、民主的制度过渡。提供自由和公正的选举对他们来讲更为有利，昂山素姬女士和她的政党不应该坚持兑现他们感到自豪的1990年压倒性选举胜利的结果。并且，虽然有点让人不愉快，但是他们应该向将军们提供需要平静解决问题的任何一种动机。所有这些听起来象是在做白日梦。如果外部世界不团结在这一整套要求的周围，不使用能让老泰龙钟的士兵听话的胡罗卜和大棒政策促成他们之间达成协议，那么，这一切将的确仍然是白日梦。

世界经济：信贷危机会扣动衰退的扳机么？

The world economy

Will the credit crisis trigger a downturn?

信贷危机会扣动衰退的扳机么？

Sep 20th 2007
From The Economist print edition

Despite the Fed's big interest-rate cut, increasing risk-aversion is likely to depress growth

尽管美联储大幅调低利率，但是持续增长的风险厌恶度可能会压低增长率。

AT THE climax of “The Day the Earth Caught Fire”, a science-fiction film made in 1961, the fate of the planet hangs in the balance. The world's great powers decide to detonate nuclear bombs, hoping to push the Earth off a collision course with the sun. Do they succeed? The final scene shows two versions of the next day's Daily Express: the headline on the first reads “World Saved”; the other, “World Doomed”.

1961年的科幻电影《地球焚毁日》最高潮情节是，整个星球的命运悬而待决。世界强国决定引爆核武器，以期把地球推离同太阳相撞的轨道。他们成功了么？最后的镜头展现了两个版本的《每日快报》：一个版本的标题是：“世界获救”，另一个是“世界毁灭”。

In the 2007 sequel, “The Day the Credit Markets Seized Up”, Wall Street seemed this week almost to have made up its mind about the ending: World Saved, Probably. Financial markets had expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on September 18th, but prayed fervently for a half. When the half came, America's markets rejoiced: the S&P 500 index enjoyed its largest rise on a single day since January 2003; the next day share prices elsewhere jumped for joy and junk-bond markets sprang back to life.

在这部电影2007年的续集《信用市场失灵日》中，华尔街似乎这一周都对它的结局信誓旦旦：世界获救，有这个可能。金融市场已经预期联邦储备委员会将于九月十八日降低利率四分之一个百分点，但还是热切的祈求能降低半个百分点。当那半个点数真的降下来时，美国市场欢欣鼓舞：标准普尔500种股票指数兴奋地迎来了自2003年以来的单日最大升幅；第二天，其他的股票价格无不欢呼雀跃，垃圾股也焕发出了第二春。

But on sober appraisal, there is less cause for celebration. Global money markets are still be devilled by banks' need for cash and mistrust of one another: witness the thousands of Britons who queued this week to take their money out of Northern Rock, a mortgage lender. The longer that money-market rates stay high, the greater the danger that expensive credit will start to hurt real economies. Central bankers still have work to do and reputations to make and lose—chief among them Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Fed. Mr Bernanke may have been feted this week. But it will take more than one rate cut, with Wall Street and Congress screaming for it, to make his name. In the past the Fed has been too eager to cut rates repeatedly when markets gripe. Mr Bernanke has yet to show he is not making the same mistake.

但是清醒地来评价，值得庆贺的事并没有那么多。全球货币市场仍然被银行的现金需求和相互的不信任所困饶：本周有人亲眼看见数千名英国人排队从按揭贷款人Northern Rock那 里提款。现金市场利率在高位呆得越久，昂贵的信贷开始伤害当前经济的危险就越大。中央银行家们仍然有很多工作要做，建立声誉并迷失于其中——他们中首当其 冲的是美联储主席本·伯南克。伯南克本周可能是最佳座上客。但是在华尔街和国会山的强烈呼求下，宴会上添上他的名字所需要采取的措施可不仅仅是单一的降 息。过去，当市场紧缩时，美联储太热衷于反复降息的手段了。伯南克至今已向人们表明他没有犯同样的错误。

Reasons to be fearful担心的理由

The size of the Fed's cut and the statement that accompanied it signified fear more than hope (see article). The central bank hopes to “forestall some of the adverse effects” of the credit crunch on the economy. But trouble may be coming anyway. The housing market's malaise is deepening all the while. This week's symptoms were a 12-year low in housing starts and a doubling of foreclosures in a year. No wonder housebuilders are their gloomiest since the 1991 recession.

美联储降息的幅度以及随后的声明意味着担心多于希望。中央银行希望“阻止(信贷紧缩对经济的)不利影响”。但是麻烦可能无论如何都会浮现。同时，住房市场的弊病却更深了。本周的症状表现为：住宅兴建量达十二年以来的最低点，抵押房产赎回权的丧失率在一年内提高了一倍。毫无疑问这是自1991年的大萧条以来住房投资商最暗淡的日子了。

If America is set for a sharp slowdown, or even a recession, it is sure to import less from other countries. That, however, is not the main danger to the rest of the world. Both Europe and Asia are less dependent on American growth than they used to be. Europe is now on a par with America as a market for Chinese exports. Sales to America account for less than 3% of euro-zone GDP. And some rebalancing of the world economy—a smaller American current-account deficit, a weaker dollar—is no bad thing.

如果美国提出了大幅衰退或者说甚至是萧条的任务，那么减少从其他国家的进口则是必然的。然而，那不是对世界其他国家的主要威胁。因为欧洲和亚洲均比以往更少依赖于美国的增长。对中国的出口市场来讲，欧洲和美国所占的分额相当。销售到美国的商品在欧元区的GDP中所占的分额还不到整体的3%。些许的对世界经济的重新平衡——减少经常帐目赤字，唱衰美元——未尝不是好事。

The real source of pain is the rise in borrowing costs in both America and Europe. Granted, things are a little better than they were. The gap between three-month interbank rates and Treasury bills, a measure of the risk of lending to other banks rather than Uncle Sam, has narrowed in recent days, helped by the Fed's cut. Sterling interbank rates also fell, notably after the Bank of England abandoned its refusal to intervene in the three-month money market. But the about-turn came only after the panic at Northern Rock—and has heightened criticism of the governor, Mervyn King. Central banks must hope that a turning point has been reached, but interbank rates are still high. There is a long way to go.

真 正的疼痛来源是欧洲和美国的借贷成本上升。当然了，情况略好于过去。借助于美联储的降息，衡量向其他银行而非山姆大叔放贷的风险标准——三个月期限的同业 拆借率和国库券之间的差距——缩小了。值得注意的是，在英格兰银行放弃其拒绝干涉三个月期限现金市场立场之后，英镑的同业拆借率也下降了。但是这个大逆转 是在Northern Rock银行的大恐慌之后才产生的，这加深了人们对管理者Mervyn King的批评。中央银行肯定希望某个转折点已经抵达，但是拆借率仍然偏高。路仍然漫漫。

From celebration to calibration先庆祝后调整

A lot of this pain, alas, is necessary. Central banks have been saying for months that risk had become underpriced. Well, now the repricing is at hand, and it is not going to be fun. Banks have to work out the cost of the damage done by years of easy credit and gorging on complicated financial products (see article). It could take months to put prices on the complicated mix of assets for which they are ultimately liable. Meanwhile, they will want to keep cash to themselves rather than lend to others. And in future they may be choosier about who they lend to, directly or indirectly.

大 量的这种痛苦，唉，还是必要的。中央银行不停地说风险已经变得过低了。好了，现手握重新定价的利器，却发现并不是那么有趣。银行不得不计算出多年放宽信贷 条件所造成的损害成本，然后贪婪地大吃错综复杂的金融产品大餐。这会需要花费几个月时间去给那些银行最终仍要负责的错综复杂的资产组合定价。同时，他们都 更希望把现金留给自己，而非向别人放贷。也许在将来，他们会直接或者间接地慎重选择他们的借贷对象。

This is not to say that securitisation is about to be uninvented. It cannot be and should not be. In recent weeks the dangers of financial innovation—the divorce of originator from ultimate lender; the sheer complexity of some derivatives—have become plain. The benefits remain, not least the increased ability of households to smooth spending over their lifetimes and of markets to allocate risks to those most willing to bear them (see article). But there are cycles in all things: underpricing begets excess, which begets a reckoning. For a while at least, many people and businesses will have to pay more to borrow, or will not be able to borrow at all. The results will be felt in markets for housing—America's was far from the frothiest—as well as junk bonds and corporate buy-outs.

这并非说证券化将要被非创造化。不能也不应该。最近几周的金融创新的危险——创办人从最终放款人中脱离；一些衍生产品十足的复杂性——已经很清晰明了。高收益依然如旧，保持家庭终生平稳消费的能力在持续增长，向那些最愿承担风险的人分摊市场风险的功能也在加强(请看本期专题) 。但是这一切都遵从一个循环：过低定价招致过剩，而过剩又招致呆坏帐。至少在短时期内，许多个人和企业将不得不偿还更多借款，或者根本就无力借贷。这个结果将在不仅在住房供给市场——美国的住房供给市场距离泡沫还有很远——上得以体现，还会体现在垃圾股与公司赎回市场上。

To some extent, easier monetary policy may soothe the transition. Already some central banks have held off interest-rate increases that looked certain a few weeks ago. But even if some of these eventually cut rates, they are unlikely wholly to reverse the tightening of conditions just yet. The markets are in effect raising rates on the central banks' behalf. These monetary policymakers are unlikely to forget inflation in a hurry.

就 某种程度上来讲，宽松的货币政策可能对过渡期起到缓和作用。部分中央银行已经阻住了利率的升高，几周以前利率的升高看起来似乎要成定局。但是即使他们中的 一些央行最终削减利率，他们也不大可能恰在此时完全扭转紧缩的局势。代表中央银行利益的市场正在有效加速。那些货币政策的制定者不太可能如此迅速地忘记通 货膨胀。

But might the Fed? It says not. And given the recent run of economic data, inflation hardly seems an imminent threat. That ought to help to protect Mr Bernanke from the charge levelled at Alan Greenspan, his predecessor. Under Mr Greenspan, whose memoirs came out this week (see article), the Fed won a name for being quick to cut rates when markets squealed but slow to raise them when the economy picked up. The housing boom—and today's mess—are the result.

那 么美联储会忘记么？它给出的回答是否定的。考虑到当前经济数据的走向，通货膨胀似乎很难会是迫在眉睫的威胁。这应该会有助于保护伯南克远离他的前人艾伦· 格林斯潘所受到的“平衡”指责。根据本周出笼的格林斯潘的回忆录，美联储赢得了这样一个名声：当市场告急时迅速降息，但是经济回升时却疏于回调。住房市场 的繁荣——以及现在的一团糟——就是那种做法的后果。

Having delivered a half-point cut rather than a quarter, Mr Bernanke is not yet free of the suspicion that he will follow Mr Greenspan's path. Nor is he surely guilty. His Fed has cut rates with the economy looking ropy—but also with bankers and politicians trying to bully him. The hope is that he acted because he saw a gloomy outlook. The fear is that he did so because it is hard for central bankers to say no.

虽 然抛出半个点数的降息远胜于四分之一点，但是伯南克仍然无法使人抛开其重蹈格林斯潘覆辙的疑惑。并且他也确实不该承担责任。他主导的美联储在看起来不仅束 手缚脚的经济体系中降低了利息——并且那些银行和政客还试图恐吓他。如果他降息是因为他看见了一个暗淡的前景，那么这令人充满希望。如果他降息是因为中央 银行很难说不，那么这会令人忧心憧憧。